WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3854ef2bcf9945fd1fdf2ca38b23c7208957af0eade2060f9742a14c98c817d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chicago Sky | 59c | 4,897$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.52 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun | 41c | 3,023$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.29 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 60c | 1,138$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.86 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Connecticut Sun | 41c | 1,074$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.61 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Sky | 36c | 915.34$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0de…8048backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 731.28$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky | 42c | 458.92$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 434.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.31 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky | 54c | 307.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 295$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Connecticut Sun | 40c | 290.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.42 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Connecticut Sun | 43c | 228.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Sky | 42c | 207.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | -19.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 122.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 904 | 49.4%447 W · 457 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Connecticut Sun | 64c | 113.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 112.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 136 | 61.8%84 W · 52 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 111.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Connecticut Sun | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Connecticut Sun | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun | 42c | 98.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky | 45c | 94.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 62c | 84.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 64.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Chicago Sky | 38c | 63.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Connecticut Sun | 64c | 56.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Connecticut Sun | 64c | 56.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Chicago Sky | 54c | 50.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun | 45c | 47.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Sky | 55c | 43.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 37.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 28.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…a441backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)this page
- Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5Over won
- Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-7.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.