TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Connecticut Sunof Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c15…9a45backed Chicago Sky72c53,647$38,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,820.682955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Chicago Sky16c24,329$3,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,854.698327.7%23 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Connecticut Sun28c20,708$5,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,909.767749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked Connecticut Sun28c19,600$5,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,210633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Sky73c15,873$11,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,615.6928753.3%153 W · 134 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun26c13,247$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,772.0641051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Chicago Sky72c11,771$8,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,475.1236754%198 W · 169 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Connecticut Sun28c5,647$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,065.84825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Chicago Sky14c5,550$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.775119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Connecticut Sun40c5,245$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.0338940.9%159 W · 230 L-14.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky23c4,850$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.241,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Chicago Sky68c4,554$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,08310348.5%50 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Connecticut Sun26c4,161$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,078.8647246.8%221 W · 251 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Connecticut Sun26c4,028$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.019137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Connecticut Sun26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9605759.6%34 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Connecticut Sun73c3,865$2,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.9413956.8%79 W · 60 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun29c3,601$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.1185948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun44c3,215$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.9756455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Connecticut Sun75c3,179$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky71c3,068$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.841,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Sky25c3,023$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.8351552.6%271 W · 244 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Connecticut Sun32c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed Connecticut Sun28c2,820$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2829…12a0backed Connecticut Sun28c2,820$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed Chicago Sky26c2,547$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Chicago Sky18c2,503$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.892250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Chicago Sky8c2,364$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Chicago Sky10c2,117$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.062714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-62.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Sky67c2,015$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.468140.7%33 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c12…487dbacked Chicago Sky6c1,941$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd772…1d8fbacked Chicago Sky52c1,935$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Connecticut Sun61c1,833$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5236950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Chicago Sky74c1,784$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky25c1,702$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4890449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Connecticut Sun32c1,700$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1569439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun77c1,653$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.061,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Connecticut Sun27c1,600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16819847.5%94 W · 104 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe538…c28bbacked Chicago Sky48c1,467$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Chicago Sky7c1,404$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4610440.4%42 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x484f…de32backed Connecticut Sun28c1,400$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed Chicago Sky75c1,383$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.062744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Connecticut Sun75c1,350$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Chicago Sky70c1,287$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9003756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Connecticut Sun28c1,253$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.933941%16 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky11c1,188$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9331443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x841d…f06ebacked Chicago Sky9c1,116$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Connecticut Sun79c1,111$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.363141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Chicago Sky56c1,092$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.646352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f4…3dc9backed Chicago Sky38c1,066$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.94468.2%30 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cc…00b6backed Connecticut Sun26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64f…bcf8backed Connecticut Sun73c999.97$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Chicago Sky4c914.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.62035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Connecticut Sun27c812.59$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.074759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Connecticut Sun69c808.49$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Connecticut Sun27c772.68$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+83.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Connecticut Sun27c750$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.514248.6%69 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Chicago Sky75c733.33$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508160.5%49 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce0…97afbacked Chicago Sky69c724.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Chicago Sky9c722.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Chicago Sky21c716.21$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8619658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Chicago Sky9c699.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.39513.7%13 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd3…e427backed Connecticut Sun75c657.55$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.394100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Connecticut Sun26c656.34$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9442046.7%196 W · 224 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Connecticut Sun46c562.11$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.542937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb306…2086backed Connecticut Sun80c542$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefb…5b50backed Chicago Sky6c539.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.84025%10 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Chicago Sky10c507.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.552326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd20c…5031backed Connecticut Sun29c501.14$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.844055%22 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe692…13a8backed Connecticut Sun31c449.3$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.24151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Chicago Sky29c439.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4111941.2%49 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Connecticut Sun62c422.35$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.761973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Connecticut Sun43c403.83$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22925247.6%120 W · 132 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago Sky57c399.53$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7833839.9%135 W · 203 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95f5…ecf5backed Chicago Sky6c390.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69c0…30f9backed Chicago Sky52c388.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Chicago Sky7c376.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Connecticut Sun27c375$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.752532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Connecticut Sun27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3712434.7%43 W · 81 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Connecticut Sun31c368.45$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.232040%8 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f8…2ed6backed Chicago Sky69c363.32$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.99862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Connecticut Sun29c329.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7937054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago Sky12c327.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3841446.6%193 W · 221 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Connecticut Sun44c325.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.12972.4%21 W · 8 L+5.5wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Connecticut Sun28c317.44$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.147850%39 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Connecticut Sun44c316.58$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1113661.8%84 W · 52 L+14.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd94f…ee62backed Chicago Sky18c311.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Chicago Sky31c307.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.786538.5%25 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Sky74c306.95$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2232749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Chicago Sky8c305$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.952263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Sky57c301.91$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8224847.6%118 W · 130 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Connecticut Sun32c296.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.0631249.4%154 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Chicago Sky68c294.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006063.3%38 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Chicago Sky12c291.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.371216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Chicago Sky73c280.27$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.67841%32 W · 46 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa96e…bb89backed Connecticut Sun32c280$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Chicago Sky72c277.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9914350.3%72 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee4a…ad4cbacked Connecticut Sun30c265.83$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.352352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x018e…5c3dbacked Connecticut Sun27c259.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun27c256$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.8893248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Chicago Sky4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045415.6%71 W · 383 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.