Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38a12341d28a744b29b53fd4e55ca68e20e780ffe4a0ed34ef2d47b5f6eec5a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 18,955$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.17 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 9,388$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…08a0backed Yes | 1c | 8,845$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…466dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…df62backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 27.8%65 W · 169 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…863dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…972bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 218 | 7.3%16 W · 202 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,463$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…69afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 28.3%51 W · 129 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…f4eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 39.3%68 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…50c2backed Yes | 1c | 999.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 189 | 18.5%35 W · 154 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…7047backed Yes | 1c | 972.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…10b4backed Yes | 1c | 811.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 724 | 24.7%179 W · 545 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…789dbacked Yes | 2c | 697.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 195 | 17.9%35 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…55c2backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 463 | 19.9%92 W · 371 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…ee0fbacked Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 23.7%42 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 536.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…3ad7backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…2efdbacked Yes | 4c | 451.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…755bbacked Yes | 4c | 447.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes | 3c | 362.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 5c | 241.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…b3c5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 356 | 12.6%45 W · 311 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?Yes won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.