Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd480dbd5986584588960b6450942e4ee1856afd9eb9c3e6dc30aa6327e9ec429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe1c…436cbacked Yes | 12c | 49,919$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 174 | 16.1%28 W · 146 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 8,434$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.42 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 12c | 5,008$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 672 | 9.2%62 W · 610 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 3,763$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…e4e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 1,560$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,417$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 485 | 26.8%130 W · 355 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…b084backed Yes | 10c | 1,270$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…e382backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…4ae4backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…4d6fbacked Yes | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 126 | 15.1%19 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf46…bca7backed Yes | 12c | 702.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf067…5c6dbacked Yes | 11c | 518.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 339 | 15.9%54 W · 285 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 26%64 W · 182 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8b…11d7backed Yes | 11c | 427.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 175 | 18.3%32 W · 143 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…c932backed Yes | 12c | 402$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 8c | 395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…3ec7backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…24a3backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…036abacked Yes | 11c | 322.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…3502backed Yes | 11c | 289.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 445 | 24.9%111 W · 334 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…5255backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 11c | 267.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9675backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 225 | 18.2%41 W · 184 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…af79backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…14afbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…a7dfbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 241$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 303 | 21.5%65 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…f4f7backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…755bbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…b8e6backed Yes | 11c | 200.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Yes | 11c | 187.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…2bf0backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 22.2%49 W · 172 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…6412backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 365 | 30.7%112 W · 253 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…a7fcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 23.7%28 W · 90 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…8339backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 19.5%33 W · 136 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 17%66 W · 322 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…95f3backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Yes | 11c | 145.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 984 | 39.2%386 W · 598 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…6156backed Yes | 11c | 132.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…532bbacked Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 11c | 127.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 300 | 32.3%97 W · 203 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…a53ebacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 124.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 927 | 32.1%298 W · 629 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…9d22backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…b161backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…3ec8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…8aacbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…9142backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?Yes won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany?No won
- Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.