NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39797f16d2c90c61a582b9cca745a2125f51504b6db5cf72eeb688089ebd3409

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof 76ers, Raptors
Resolved: Nov 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $118,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,157 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Raptors	53c	80,852$42,670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42,669.99	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked 76ers	47c	25,000$11,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,250	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	48c	24,181$11,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,692.64	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed 76ers	49c	12,469$6,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,309.07	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 76ers	47c	10,895$5,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,774.35	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,100	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors	51c	9,289$4,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,737.42	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers	48c	8,250$3,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,330	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed 76ers	47c	5,040$2,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,671.2	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Raptors	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed 76ers	48c	4,011$1,914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,096.7	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers	47c	1,409$664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$745.07	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers	47c	1,320$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696.56	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 76ers	47c	1,170$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620.1	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Raptors	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	200	34%68 W · 132 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked 76ers	48c	866.81$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.82	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	50c	790$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.72	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked 76ers	48c	380$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.6	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked 76ers	50c	256$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Raptors	60c	240$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors	51c	215$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.65	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked 76ers	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed 76ers	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…e02abacked Raptors	57c	158.59$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.77	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed 76ers	49c	110$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.2	774	37.5%290 W · 484 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Raptors	50c	103.16$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.16	160	52.5%84 W · 76 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed 76ers	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked 76ers	47c	88$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.22	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed 76ers	45c	80.74$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.25	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked 76ers	58c	75$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Raptors	52c	62$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	320	41.9%134 W · 186 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed 76ers	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8984…8af8backed 76ers	49c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.05	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+5.2wins	+0.26per pick	44cpaid	+61.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Raptors	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dff…bc36backed Raptors	51c	49.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed 76ers	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed 76ers	48c	39.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.7	137	50.4%69 W · 68 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed 76ers	49c	32.63$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.64	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed 76ers	50c	28.8$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2b…e3b1backed Raptors	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event