Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3987d7522845f18c7d584ccaae2b66847c158f2415f6ff94b822f3343ee706d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 33c | 904.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 623.04$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 609.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 586.8$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 498.12$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 431.03$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 386.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 340.45$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 33c | 320.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 48c | 320.46$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 316.72$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 6c | 293.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed Yes | 4c | 288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 277.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 256.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 39c | 212.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 191.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 75c | 171.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 164.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 161.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 157.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 155.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 149.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 148.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 26c | 147.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 133.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 124.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 124$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 123$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 116.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 115.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 10c | 113.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 109.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 101.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 100.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 25c | 99.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 93.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 89.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 88.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 35c | 80.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 74.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 53c | 74.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 73.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 69.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 69.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 62.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 55.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 54.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 50c | 52.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 52.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…106bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 26c | 46.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 65c | 43.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 42.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 42.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 28c | 42.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 40c | 40.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 69c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 35.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 30c | 34.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 57c | 33.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 50c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…1c53backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 27.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ab…6327backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 74c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 53c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.