Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef6b52ac6b26599f5d09aa5326a286cb658d2548e5303054ba898a8bed2a4289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 35c | 932.89$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.89 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 4c | 499.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 482.19$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.88 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 426.07$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 383.12$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 19c | 377.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 356.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 349.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 342.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.42 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 4c | 328.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 53c | 286.48$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 265.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 263.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 263.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed No | 13c | 255.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 34c | 221.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 199$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 198.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 184.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 178.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 33c | 173.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 57c | 168.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 156.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 155.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 148$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…bd7cbacked No | 73c | 130.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 122.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 114.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 111.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 110.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 79c | 108.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 65c | 102.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 63c | 93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 88.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 80.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 80.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 70c | 71.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 69.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 33c | 65.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 38c | 62.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 48.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 41.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 41.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 40.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed Yes | 39c | 38.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 62c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 31c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 64c | 31.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 29.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 37c | 29.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 71c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 62c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 27.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ab…6327backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 23.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 44c | 23.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 66c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.