TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under50c1,261$628 inWon+$632.681,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Over49c373$183 inLost-$182.7722638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over50c300$150 inLost-$1506,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Over51c251.36$128 inLost-$128.1911041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c200$102 inLost-$1025,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under77c58.43$45 inWon+$13.259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over23c54$12 inLost-$12.4254715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over52c38.98$20 inLost-$20.272,94447.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L+4.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Over51c36.66$19 inLost-$18.735747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over50c36.4$18 inLost-$18.22,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under63c20.57$13 inWon+$7.617869.2%54 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under67c20$13 inWon+$6.61,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.