MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc978f270303922d9aed01e157b27df69c7d2ceea00246bdc73f0f3934750a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Under | 54c | 18,197$9,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,774.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 16,265$7,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,665.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 14,326$6,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,820.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 8,408$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,427.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 29c | 1,664$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Under | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 998.09$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 49c | 795.99$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.97 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked Under | 51c | 340.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 47c | 327.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 53c | 324.44$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 52c | 190.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a612backed Over | 47c | 141.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 113.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 66c | 77.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 66c | 74.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Under | 51c | 72.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 42c | 53.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 55c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…cc94backed Over | 42c | 28.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 42c | 26.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.