MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564c7864ea776c396fe213374ac774c3eaa549931e9b4b2b6e1d626af8c90091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 108,576$44,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,798.44 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 93,815$55,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,677.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 7,548$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,417.48 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 4,032$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.79 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 2,498$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 1,496$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.89 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 1,261$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.97 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…a6fcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.85 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 1,107$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.47 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 905$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.25 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 689.56$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked San Diego Padres | 74c | 657.92$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 605$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.7 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 524$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.34 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 520.35$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.51 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 501.92$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.9 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 467.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.84 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 444.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.44 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 382.74$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.98 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 288.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 204.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 183.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 168.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…9548backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 161.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 153.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 151.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 142.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 137.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 133.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 123.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 118.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 117.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 115.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 114.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 114.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 113.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 102.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 98.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 80.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 73.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 68.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 67.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 64.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 62.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 59.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 55.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 54.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…3f3fbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 41.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 35.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 29.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 28.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 28.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 28.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 27.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…548fbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 25.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 24.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 22.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…4bf1backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 20.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.