MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9ceb5d12c1472e339b64e90a2ba28de40ad4c0b1e6fa98a7ace289e6f061ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 18,282$9,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,217.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 11,976$5,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,156.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 53c | 4,690$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.62 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 2,592$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 25c | 1,390$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.53 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,305$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 56c | 906.8$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.99 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 906.31$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.28 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 896$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.46 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 781.29$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 545.53$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 42c | 424.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 17c | 415.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 48c | 313.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 304.85$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 292.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 47c | 210.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 42c | 208.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Over | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Under | 70c | 188.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 54c | 148.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 44c | 139.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 44c | 135.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 47c | 118.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 54c | 111.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…3d01backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 59c | 97.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 42c | 89.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 21c | 87.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 48c | 70.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 49c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 20c | 63.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 65c | 63.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 62.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 61c | 60.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 52c | 60.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 39c | 55.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Over | 39c | 55.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 63c | 53.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 45.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 42c | 44.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 42c | 44.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 64c | 44.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 46c | 43.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 67c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 60c | 36.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 66c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 65c | 35.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…08bcbacked Under | 63c | 31.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 76c | 31.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 49c | 28.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…900fbacked Over | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 40c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 26.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…ed60backed Under | 62c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 63c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 76c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.