MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed308e5b7481c4a083777775831b11e08300e4d1f4068484b358bb803a5a1a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 4,108$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.02 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 3,074$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.14 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 2,547$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 2,316$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.91 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 10c | 726.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 11c | 552.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 503.25$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.23 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 483.87$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.03 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 394$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 292$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 292$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 170.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 69.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Diego Padres | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 49.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 49.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 37.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.