MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f77bf4917cc4117b410c1d81369a557cba99c0562429ff4e1b4f7e2664978f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 54c | 8,992$4,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,127.55 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 3,437$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.83 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 46c | 3,306$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.56 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,609$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 54c | 2,429$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.77 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 1,973$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Yes | 3c | 826.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 55c | 722.68$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.68 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 47c | 462$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 44c | 446.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.43 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 402$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 50c | 295.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 244.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 54c | 174.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 52c | 76.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 49c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…0c3fbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…c1f2backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +381.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 47c | 29.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…a27cbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…6d35backed No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacksthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.