MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e17b655a814e8c0931df477da4646f587aae79d1634c8c2f615614b5e2ec99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,863$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 34c | 1,831$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 1,751$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 13c | 1,557$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 1,265$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 57c | 883$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.69 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 851$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 676.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 475.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 77c | 410$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Over | 8c | 379$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 15c | 266.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 15c | 239.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Over | 8c | 199.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 13c | 194.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 150.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 146$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 14c | 131.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 73c | 129.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Over | 15c | 85.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Over | 14c | 81.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 15c | 79.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 71c | 60.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 41c | 53.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…7310backed Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 46.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…a931backed Under | 78c | 46.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 73cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 30.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 58c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 57c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.