MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01dcfad47b0b05eda65b0daaa9c3db09da3cdeb6b3103e8a2474b15ee6f18b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 15,555$4,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,355.4 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 13,826$9,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,866.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 9,843$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,248.02 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 6,355$4,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.71 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 6,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,020 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 5,600$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.98 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 4,991$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 4,582$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 3,080$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 2,186$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 1,782$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 1,481$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.31 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 1,298$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.32 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 24c | 1,057$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.31 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 963$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 932.53$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 827.09$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.15 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 624$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 5c | 519$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 505$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 497$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 479.85$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.42 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 431.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 333.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 305.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 198$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 6c | 181$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 177.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 175.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 154.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 68.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 49.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 49.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 47.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 43.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 31.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 29.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 20.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.