NHL · resolved market
Will Chase Reid be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9574775fb8523251daa13d544cf34005c1024c80769cda1673e345a08aa0e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 56c | 387.94$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 57c | 297.82$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 58c | 274.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.13 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 216.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 127.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 53c | 124.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…ff90backed Yes | 68c | 117.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 104.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…a2c8backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 69.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 55.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 48c | 54.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 45.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…22a6backed Yes | 42c | 33.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…7761backed No | 43c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 25.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…5d00backed Yes | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chase Reid be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.