NHL · resolved market
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d71955f999711f9b17ca8e19aca879ff1f44e287749b0d77c4f047c982f17c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…71e4backed Yes | 43c | 939.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Yes | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 59c | 371.66$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 51c | 302.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…97eabacked No | 57c | 233.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 188$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 57c | 146.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 135$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 125.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 121.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…22a6backed No | 55c | 119.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed No | 21c | 119.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 117.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 110.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Yes | 46c | 108.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 104.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 32c | 70.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 62.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 53.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 53c | 52.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…af5fbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…8059backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…3679backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 38.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…e8f6backed Yes | 44c | 37.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 33.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…4e67backed Yes | 46c | 32.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 54c | 32.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 58c | 30.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 56c | 27.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 23.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c81…90e6backed Yes | 56c | 19.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Chase Reid be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.