College Football · resolved market
Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d95be34c65f1c228e33a113a491d1f43eed7d81bfe2176e47ef4c41a4c53f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawai'iof Sam Houston, Hawai'i
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Sam Houston | 18c | 41,850$7,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,609.94 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Hawai'i | 79c | 35,264$27,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,272.71 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Sam Houston | 11c | 33,706$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,732.46 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Sam Houston | 27c | 15,103$4,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,077.71 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Hawai'i | 73c | 12,421$9,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Sam Houston | 29c | 6,904$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Sam Houston | 28c | 4,402$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.42 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Sam Houston | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Hawai'i | 73c | 2,870$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.86 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Sam Houston | 15c | 2,749$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.89 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Sam Houston | 29c | 1,750$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.99 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sam Houston | 12c | 1,016$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Sam Houston | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Sam Houston | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Sam Houston | 26c | 999.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Sam Houston | 27c | 600$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Sam Houston | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Sam Houston | 25c | 488$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Hawai'i | 71c | 470$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sam Houston | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Hawai'i | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sam Houston | 27c | 296.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawai'i | 80c | 257.09$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Sam Houston | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Sam Houston | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Sam Houston | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Hawai'i | 74c | 182.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sam Houston | 27c | 169.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawai'i | 76c | 169.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed Hawai'i | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sam Houston | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Sam Houston | 30c | 104.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Sam Houston | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Sam Houston | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Hawai'i | 73c | 86.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Hawai'i | 74c | 79.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sam Houston | 15c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Hawai'i | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…2149backed Hawai'i | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Sam Houston | 28c | 66.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…73e2backed Hawai'i | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Hawai'i | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…2a30backed Hawai'i | 73c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…c167backed Hawai'i | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…e92ebacked Hawai'i | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…d681backed Hawai'i | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Hawai'i | 73c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Hawai'i | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…ec96backed Hawai'i | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Hawai'i | 74c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sam Houston vs. Hawai'ithis page
- Sam Houston vs. Hawai'i: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Hawai'i (-8.5)Hawai'i won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.