TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Anastasia Zakharova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cocciarettoof Cocciaretto, Zakharova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Zakharova39c8,558$3,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,303.52,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Zakharova14c7,129$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Zakharova36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9923126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Cocciaretto62c4,910$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.7630241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Cocciaretto74c4,674$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.3628552.3%149 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cocciaretto80c4,057$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.671,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Zakharova28c2,564$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.362,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Cocciaretto47c2,263$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.9455646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Zakharova43c1,829$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.7247057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Zakharova35c1,719$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.9230645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Cocciaretto61c1,698$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.286026.7%16 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Zakharova16c1,682$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.326,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Cocciaretto62c1,603$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.4616743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Zakharova38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.991,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Cocciaretto58c1,468$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.494,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Cocciaretto48c1,460$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.5626847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Zakharova43c1,452$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.0181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Cocciaretto66c1,213$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.1114250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Zakharova34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40076140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Cocciaretto48c1,096$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.7135247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Zakharova26c1,030$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.782,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Zakharova11c988.92$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Zakharova32c921.84$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.462,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Cocciaretto59c886$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.681,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Cocciaretto58c872$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.0197046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Cocciaretto60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3372132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Zakharova16c766.67$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12251539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Cocciaretto64c765.79$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.911,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Cocciaretto63c752.31$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.3118663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Cocciaretto64c715.18$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1841955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Cocciaretto73c693.13$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3525957.5%149 W · 110 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Zakharova12c676.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Cocciaretto72c611.11$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1116665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cocciaretto69c608.2$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.758,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Zakharova48c605.27$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.71,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Cocciaretto43c573$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.9828444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Zakharova35c500$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Zakharova54c499.65$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.682,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Cocciaretto62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8778152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db1…d726backed Zakharova16c456.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511832.2%38 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cocciaretto64c377.09$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.751,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Cocciaretto67c345.13$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8925556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Zakharova48c313.65$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Zakharova34c312.31$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1995140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf878…05c1backed Zakharova16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481250%6 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+287.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Zakharova30c263.09$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.326,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9a…8a4cbacked Cocciaretto66c261.77$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.42343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Zakharova17c227.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0410743%46 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Cocciaretto46c204.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1314949.7%74 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e80…09b8backed Cocciaretto78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4371…4fd9backed Zakharova52c199$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.289749.5%48 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Cocciaretto52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Cocciaretto65c185.59$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.592,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cocciaretto61c184.49$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3965647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Cocciaretto55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8268350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Cocciaretto56c179.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0637339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Cocciaretto49c175.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5169350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Cocciaretto52c168.69$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9718957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…a87abacked Zakharova12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Zakharova26c165.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.523832.4%77 W · 161 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Zakharova30c163.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.018848.9%43 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Zakharova37c163$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.311,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Zakharova38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zakharova36c149.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1788455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Cocciaretto50c147.04$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.521,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Zakharova51c146.73$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7572542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cocciaretto67c145.81$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.794,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4d…dfdbbacked Zakharova33c142.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472528%7 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Cocciaretto75c142.34$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.046,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Zakharova24c142$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.741,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Zakharova35c137.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.683,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Cocciaretto65c137.45$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3516046.9%75 W · 85 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eea…d4e2backed Zakharova23c128.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Cocciaretto78c124.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1113356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Cocciaretto73c110$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.625542%107 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Cocciaretto46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.726227.9%73 W · 189 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Zakharova19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Cocciaretto63c100.15$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4949143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Cocciaretto64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3646649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eef…dc2ebacked Cocciaretto78c99.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22281.8%18 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Zakharova37c99.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Cocciaretto64c93.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7957349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Cocciaretto56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2931153.1%165 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…2b46backed Zakharova22c87.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Zakharova38c83.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3115343.8%67 W · 86 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Cocciaretto59c80.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.03875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Zakharova25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021843.1%94 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dad…7e62backed Zakharova22c79.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+291.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Cocciaretto64c78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.081,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Zakharova29c73.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Zakharova44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Cocciaretto75c66.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4146030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Cocciaretto63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.258753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Zakharova40c59.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6629063.8%185 W · 105 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cocciaretto71c58.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Zakharova37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3538048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Zakharova37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039850%199 W · 199 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Cocciaretto76c51.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5523852.1%124 W · 114 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Cocciaretto63c50.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7915751%80 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Cocciaretto77c50.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5970465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.