Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e06dddda8b3c3500e4a55a50d2d26b23bb18631bdb95fc9448dcde60a288997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 383.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 356.93$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 347.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 73c | 313.11$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 295.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 279.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 47c | 259.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 254.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 46c | 230$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 229.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 222.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 205.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 187.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 177.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 160.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 155.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 155.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 46c | 149.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 71c | 134.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 131.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 116.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 67c | 114.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 43c | 107$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 102.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 101.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 100.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 50c | 100.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 30c | 98.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 98.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 59c | 97.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 90.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 89.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 88.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 44c | 86.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 76.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 58c | 65.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 73c | 62.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 61.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 60.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 47c | 58.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…a8e3backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 41c | 53.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 51.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 48.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 68c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 45c | 45.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 62c | 45.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 28c | 42.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 46c | 42.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 29c | 40.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1519…6f14backed No | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 40.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 39.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 59c | 39.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 38.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 72c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 42c | 35.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 34.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 32.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 35c | 32.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 31.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d8fdbacked Yes | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 39c | 28.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 27.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 72c | 26.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 56c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.