TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FlyQuestof Sentinels, FlyQuest
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,143 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FlyQuest51c9,986$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,923.281,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed Sentinels47c7,405$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.3821137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Sentinels49c7,155$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.1367250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FlyQuest68c6,431$4,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.991,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FlyQuest64c5,918$3,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.31,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked FlyQuest59c5,585$3,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Sentinels28c5,154$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.5226443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels34c4,964$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.4592254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed FlyQuest59c4,924$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.611,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Sentinels2c4,774$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Sentinels50c4,365$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.7754555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sentinels41c4,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6203,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked FlyQuest76c3,772$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.31,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FlyQuest58c3,422$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.5785942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Sentinels41c3,259$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.6295951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FlyQuest59c2,897$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.731,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FlyQuest56c2,710$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.961,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked FlyQuest53c2,635$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.21,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked FlyQuest56c2,612$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.9415644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Sentinels46c2,121$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.3751044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.991,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dcd…7e04backed Sentinels23c2,023$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.0613752.6%72 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FlyQuest56c1,901$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.5196350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Sentinels49c1,831$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.8360847.9%291 W · 317 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Sentinels26c1,809$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.9212642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FlyQuest56c1,705$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.3490937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sentinels30c1,522$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.263,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ee0…ae41backed FlyQuest80c1,489$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.997664.5%49 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9179…2f34backed Sentinels49c1,452$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.5537662%233 W · 143 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked FlyQuest56c1,391$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.9826448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Sentinels48c1,333$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.871,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c4…19fbbacked Sentinels32c1,134$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8813652.2%71 W · 65 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x955c…ce96backed FlyQuest53c1,117$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.754641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels12c1,116$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.872,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed FlyQuest53c1,107$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.2454246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Sentinels14c1,085$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.41,73029.5%510 W · 1,220 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Sentinels49c1,039$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.1679151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Sentinels40c1,037$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5350647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f7…171fbacked Sentinels1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-79.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked FlyQuest74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26084360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Sentinels25c965.87$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.714238.1%16 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed FlyQuest66c898.37$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.7369539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Sentinels37c871.32$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2515149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Sentinels36c837.44$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7933042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed Sentinels34c825.47$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0513647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Sentinels27c815.29$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.81,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Sentinels44c740.71$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1956341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sentinels31c736.74$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.771,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Sentinels6c714.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Sentinels36c698.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.457349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ab…2f5abacked Sentinels25c667.02$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.766934.8%24 W · 45 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked FlyQuest55c613.38$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.759952.5%52 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Sentinels38c608.32$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1142250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Sentinels20c605.38$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3946153.6%247 W · 214 L-24.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Sentinels33c600.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.161,00948.2%486 W · 523 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed Sentinels46c593.18$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.8615062%93 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed FlyQuest54c586.46$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7744042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sentinels19c576.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2619830.8%61 W · 137 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2987…bfe9backed FlyQuest73c568.53$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.037162%44 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Sentinels46c555.66$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5414338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed FlyQuest53c554.02$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5914336.4%52 W · 91 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Sentinels37c550.44$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4411532.2%37 W · 78 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FlyQuest51c548.34$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.692,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cd…9f3ebacked FlyQuest72c546.22$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9415357.5%88 W · 65 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0851…1de8backed Sentinels45c543$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked FlyQuest55c528.34$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.7510831.5%34 W · 74 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Sentinels47c499.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9937039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Sentinels49c499.5$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.751,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed FlyQuest57c481.38$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8774250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Sentinels37c475.74$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.286451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33e9…895dbacked FlyQuest53c469.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.92060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed FlyQuest54c450$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20794644.6%422 W · 524 L-2.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FlyQuest53c441.95$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7273237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Sentinels46c420.7$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.521,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed Sentinels27c414.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9326062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Sentinels25c403.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.221,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sentinels32c402.63$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.552,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Sentinels14c383.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.181,14330.8%352 W · 791 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Sentinels50c371.27$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6450770%355 W · 152 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Sentinels16c362.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0174344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa1…a844backed Sentinels43c346.64$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6620238.6%78 W · 124 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fb…263abacked FlyQuest53c332.96$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.544630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed FlyQuest77c322.57$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.996443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…1ee8backed Sentinels25c304.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6912133.1%40 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FlyQuest55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.032,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Sentinels15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Sentinels50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022035.9%79 W · 141 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a22…fca9backed Sentinels15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4521443.9%94 W · 120 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FlyQuest53c298.49$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2976953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf544…4f8cbacked Sentinels46c294.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4610850.9%55 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sentinels15c282.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.881,93135.9%693 W · 1,238 L-98.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sentinels39c279.34$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.622,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Sentinels23c268.15$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4658420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sentinels12c260.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2582044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sentinels21c253$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.042,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed FlyQuest56c244.97$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6920756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Sentinels50c239.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.341060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Sentinels35c236.32$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.633125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FlyQuest74c220.69$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.681,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Sentinels44c211.84$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2118121%38 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.