Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Rybakina vs. Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe8a9311d286aaa591837712b0e4ffb54f38f6c2f5cfa324469523fc919ee74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Rybakina, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rybakina | 41c | 8,147$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.63 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Rybakina | 1c | 7,411$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked Swiatek | 60c | 5,003$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Rybakina | 37c | 4,617$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…65d0backed Rybakina | 74c | 4,103$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Swiatek | 21c | 3,394$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.89 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Swiatek | 67c | 3,102$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.11 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Rybakina | 57c | 2,700$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.66 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Rybakina | 37c | 2,677$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.62 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Swiatek | 38c | 2,092$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Rybakina | 34c | 2,032$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.66 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Swiatek | 61c | 1,595$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.99 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rybakina | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Rybakina | 34c | 1,387$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.52 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…c481backed Rybakina | 33c | 1,357$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Swiatek | 22c | 1,238$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.01 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Swiatek | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Rybakina | 35c | 956.82$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.83 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Swiatek | 25c | 888$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Swiatek | 62c | 804.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.48 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…8b16backed Swiatek | 67c | 716.42$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…9030backed Swiatek | 59c | 699.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Rybakina | 36c | 676.14$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rybakina | 62c | 643.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Swiatek | 36c | 609.92$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Rybakina | 37c | 583.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.03 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Swiatek | 65c | 573.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Swiatek | 28c | 534.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rybakina | 33c | 532.03$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Rybakina | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…08f7backed Swiatek | 22c | 444.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +344.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Swiatek | 32c | 435.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.42 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Rybakina | 38c | 403.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Swiatek | 36c | 391.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.67 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rybakina | 34c | 384.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Swiatek | 59c | 342.49$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Swiatek | 32c | 318.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.76 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Rybakina | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Rybakina | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Swiatek | 69c | 298.48$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Rybakina | 35c | 274.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Rybakina | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Rybakina | 33c | 233.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rybakina | 38c | 226.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Swiatek | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Swiatek | 64c | 179.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…f50cbacked Rybakina | 67c | 163.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Swiatek | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rybakina | 35c | 140.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…769cbacked Swiatek | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Swiatek | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Swiatek | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked Rybakina | 22c | 84.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Swiatek | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…b1febacked Rybakina | 77c | 68.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…9e6dbacked Rybakina | 53c | 57.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Swiatek | 66c | 51.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…c378backed Swiatek | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed Rybakina | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rybakina | 28c | 45.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rybakina | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…a8fabacked Swiatek | 41c | 33.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Rybakina | 40c | 32.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Swiatek | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…f057backed Rybakina | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0907…8887backed Swiatek | 68c | 20.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.