MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4115fe00cc4d5571cb3bf65861a43412502f0508e9f8b11e16560f2693ce123c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 2,938$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.55 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.82 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 1,472$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.83 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 14c | 1,067$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 1,025$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 686.55$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.34 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 581.77$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 550.86$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 363.37$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 304.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 283.05$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 256.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.24 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 244.29$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 228.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 226$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 189.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 160.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 156.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 152.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…ca0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 138.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 132.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 16c | 104.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…84e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 83.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 73.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 57.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 53.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 51.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 47.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 47.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 46.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 40.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 40.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 39.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 37.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 33.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 32.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…8463backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 18.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…3635backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 18.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.