MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b91aa86479abf7accdb314141915f860ca1d4d6d6b5cc763fe27a60e889b874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 53c | 75,863$40,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,561.32 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 24,189$11,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,885.79 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 22,555$10,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,178.57 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 12,000$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,240 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 62c | 7,545$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870.58 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 5,379$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…8463backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 2,112$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.41 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…ce05backed Over | 53c | 1,503$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,400$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.69 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 62c | 1,297$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 67c | 985.1$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.18 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…0215backed Under | 55c | 882.97$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 791.35$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.59 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 46c | 579.36$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.83 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…ce52backed Over | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 374.21$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 55c | 373.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 45c | 322.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…501cbacked Under | 73c | 284.82$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 43c | 222.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 43c | 221.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Under | 53c | 184.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 26c | 127.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 27c | 115.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 25c | 112.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 111.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Under | 52c | 93.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 25c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…d541backed Over | 52c | 85.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 41c | 80.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 40c | 69.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 44c | 60.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 48c | 56.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…098abacked Under | 53c | 56.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed Over | 44c | 47.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 63c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 58c | 40.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Under | 57c | 39.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…5b88backed Over | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 52c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Under | 77c | 35.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Under | 48c | 30.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 48c | 28.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 27.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Under | 48c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…276bbacked Under | 63c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 21.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…a349backed Under | 72c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.