Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a23aa627ddefba3c22aa1842ee7791673d6f2eb1ec295d51459eac3dfc2b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 898.44$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 380.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 299.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 43c | 283.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 11c | 283$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 43c | 229.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 227.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 174.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 170.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 157.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 150.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 134.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 131.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 129.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 103.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 67c | 68.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 38c | 61.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 58.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 54.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 45.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 42c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 44.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 41.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 35.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 34.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 57c | 28.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 56c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 23.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.