NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43015938b88fcb99106c143e9a3f86951e81322fbc405c1989cbbd325b4b76d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 58c | 8,579$4,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Kings | 42c | 8,415$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.48 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics | 56c | 1,103$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.28 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics | 55c | 631.52$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Kings | 43c | 589.97$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.69 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 45c | 497.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.09 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 42c | 431.29$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 42c | 396.64$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Celtics | 57c | 232.54$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics | 58c | 217.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Kings | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Celtics | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f0…299bbacked Kings | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 56c | 97.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Celtics | 59c | 91.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Celtics | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Kings | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Kings | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…f9f6backed Kings | 43c | 55.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Celtics | 57c | 52.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Celtics | 57c | 48.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…2f5abacked Celtics | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Kings | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f7…152fbacked Kings | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Celtics | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Celtics | 58c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Kings vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.