NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5011c21e11dd18e6e34c27e6e982cc001c0a5d3a548d99bd254d6b4062f4eed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 169,581$81,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,398.85 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 52c | 83,953$43,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,297.44 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Under | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,599.99 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 15,500$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,440 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 12,880$6,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,175.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 43c | 11,900$5,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,117.15 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1222…2aa7backed Over | 48c | 4,313$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.27 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 1,783$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.65 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 50c | 1,669$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.82 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 1,563$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.43 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 1,336$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.85 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Under | 53c | 1,234$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.06 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 52c | 1,050$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.46 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 922.57$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.3 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 505$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Over | 48c | 491.77$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 396.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 386.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 290$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 232.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…6c61backed Under | 54c | 197.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 197.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 193.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…b0cdbacked Under | 52c | 176.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 46c | 99.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 39c | 90.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 82.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Under | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 77.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…c029backed Under | 54c | 74.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…7d6fbacked Under | 55c | 67.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 52c | 63.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…6555backed Under | 56c | 50.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Under | 56c | 47.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…0e63backed Under | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…74bcbacked Under | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 55c | 46.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…0d3bbacked Under | 57c | 44.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…441cbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Under | 55c | 43.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 43.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 45c | 39.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 53c | 39.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 46c | 39.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…7671backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…f491backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Under | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 52c | 32.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…8593backed Under | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…ac2fbacked Under | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…e59ebacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 53c | 27.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Kings vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.