NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee07495e1e6c5a03a284b34e87cee7c913c88180afffce6f2929a8d02074ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 16,452$8,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,897.78 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,367$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 3,122$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.56 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,753$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 2,171$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.84 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 52c | 1,645$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.6 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 1,257$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,237$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.35 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 1,202$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.3 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 48c | 437.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…479fbacked Over | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 418.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 54c | 381.48$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 333.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 222.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 53c | 209$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 187.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…062dbacked Under | 52c | 86.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 48c | 82.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…9a42backed Under | 51c | 59.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a9…b7b7backed Over | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 52c | 49.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Under | 52c | 45.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Over | 48c | 42.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 47c | 40.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bb…15eebacked Over | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Kings vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.