TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,397 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44d4…1970backed Under52c16,452$8,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,897.7816752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c6,367$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over47c3,122$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.562,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over48c2,753$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.454,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under52c2,171$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.841,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under52c1,645$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.61,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c1,257$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.543,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c1,237$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.352,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c1,202$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.33,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48022845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over48c437.5$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21015543.2%67 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fff…479fbacked Over48c420$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Under49c418.04$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.212547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under54c381.48$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4862546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Over4c333.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3227937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Over51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505054%27 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c222.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.194,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over53c220$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.61,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Under53c209$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2323946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under51c187.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.691,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5065855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Over51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5135942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…062dbacked Under52c86.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.742245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over48c82.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.643244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.445146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ce…9a42backed Under51c59.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.175942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a9…b7b7backed Over51c58.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c50.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ad…6a69backed Under52c49.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.720149.8%100 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc79f…d270backed Under52c45.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6112752%66 W · 61 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Over48c42.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4428943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over47c40.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.950841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.252,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9d…c3eebacked Over51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510657.5%61 W · 45 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4bb…15eebacked Over51c22.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Over51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.