NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef49448c2ee8ae51de672cec6841e7101ee4b20b7a5eebb63f0b85e7ba1f97f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 77,801$34,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,968.13 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 55c | 67,920$37,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,327.53 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 4,991$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 43c | 4,843$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.5 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 4,262$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.41 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 44c | 2,926$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 55c | 2,867$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.97 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 1,273$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.12 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,218$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 978.26$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 58c | 517.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.36 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Over | 44c | 226.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 45c | 203.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 52c | 197.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 43c | 156.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 53.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Under | 57c | 50.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 43c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 48c | 37.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 56c | 29.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5this page
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Kings vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Kings vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.