TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c8,186$4,020 inWon+$4,166.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over50c5,365$2,683 inLost-$2,682.7129351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over51c2,500$1,275 inLost-$1,27546145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c2,200$1,100 inWon+$1,1001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,200$624 inLost-$6244,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Over52c1,200$624 inLost-$623.9935942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c471.77$236 inLost-$235.893,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over51c343.14$175 inLost-$17512536%45 W · 80 L-13.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over51c300$153 inLost-$1531,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c283.76$139 inWon+$144.723,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over5c258.38$14 inLost-$14.0614634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over52c208.33$108 inLost-$108.3363447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under49c200$98 inWon+$1023,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over54c93.81$50 inLost-$50.23,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0071…32dfbacked Over53c91.81$49 inLost-$48.663857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7473…935bbacked Over54c55.56$30 inLost-$301553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Over54c46.3$25 inLost-$254854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0999…9322backed Under48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$2026553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266d…083fbacked Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$205664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over51c34$17 inLost-$17.341,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over52c30.21$16 inLost-$15.7128856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over51c28$14 inLost-$14.2841048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.