TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,979 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56be…57eebacked Yes3c23,001$736 inLost-$736.4121143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1150…abe0backed Yes1c1,975$19 inLost-$18.813560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd30…c3a0backed Yes2c1,896$33 inLost-$32.864544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb48e…d489backed Yes2c1,330$27 inLost-$26.595440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes4c241.63$10 inLost-$10.436621.2%14 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes15c237.95$36 inLost-$36.4810246.1%47 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes10c219.68$22 inLost-$22.1131540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes21c92.42$19 inLost-$19.0538152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No35c53.85$19 inWon+$3579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0403…29d4backed Yes65c45.18$29 inLost-$29.371450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.