NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4312d72f74f52a4dcf37406d6008b3e1b326f1b0822084df810e5be5c6fb3862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Pistons, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Pistons | 13c | 31,471$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.21 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…81e0backed Pistons | 5c | 30,442$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.1 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Pistons | 3c | 24,143$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.39 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pistons | 13c | 15,150$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.99 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…38a0backed Pistons | 7c | 12,955$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…bf85backed Pistons | 6c | 12,824$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.92 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +18.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Pistons | 4c | 7,180$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.8 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Pistons | 5c | 7,128$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.26 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pistons | 13c | 6,826$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.44 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons | 10c | 6,771$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.68 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons | 6c | 6,485$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Pistons | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Pistons | 13c | 3,954$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Pistons | 13c | 3,293$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.13 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Pistons | 14c | 3,105$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Pistons | 5c | 3,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 311 | 25.1%78 W · 233 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Pistons | 5c | 2,479$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Pistons | 3c | 2,420$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Pistons | 12c | 1,856$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.73 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Pistons | 11c | 1,841$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.18 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Pistons | 10c | 1,795$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pistons | 12c | 1,720$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…48f2backed Pistons | 14c | 1,680$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Pistons | 10c | 1,641$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Pistons | 11c | 1,563$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Pistons | 12c | 1,545$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Pistons | 1c | 1,349$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Pistons | 13c | 1,320$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pistons | 12c | 1,251$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pistons | 13c | 1,210$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Pistons | 1c | 1,064$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 85 | 7.1%6 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Pistons | 1c | 1,059$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Pistons | 6c | 959.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 472 | 29.4%139 W · 333 L | -33.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Pistons | 3c | 920$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Pistons | 1c | 912.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…2869backed Pistons | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Pistons | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 365 | 14.2%52 W · 313 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pistons | 11c | 478.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Pistons | 3c | 439.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pistons | 4c | 423.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Pistons | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Pistons | 12c | 408$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Pistons | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…b720backed Pistons | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Pistons | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Pistons | 14c | 288.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked Pistons | 5c | 283.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…5243backed Pistons | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcf…76e3backed Pistons | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Pistons | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Pistons | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…30dbbacked Pistons | 12c | 198.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…f2afbacked Pistons | 12c | 182$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…7f00backed Pistons | 12c | 168.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Pistons | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…99d1backed Pistons | 14c | 162.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Pistons | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…6507backed Pistons | 14c | 147.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 173 | 31.2%54 W · 119 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…38cebacked Pistons | 12c | 138.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Pistons | 11c | 121.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Pistons | 10c | 118.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Pistons | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…d48ebacked Pistons | 16c | 106.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…bacabacked Pistons | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…c4e6backed Pistons | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Pistons | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pistons | 12c | 97.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Pistons | 13c | 87.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.