TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,436 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Over50c144,042$72,021 inWon+$72,021.191,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Under50c127,640$63,820 inLost-$63,82016846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Under50c55,413$27,602 inLost-$27,602.217031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over50c29,091$14,630 inWon+$14,461.622,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c4,366$2,183 inWon+$2,1833,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over53c1,415$750 inWon+$665.0965339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over51c1,155$589 inWon+$565.836,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over53c1,005$533 inWon+$472.3569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c778$390 inWon+$388.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over52c643$334 inWon+$308.641,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over51c310.77$160 inWon+$150.7757250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c286.37$137 inLost-$136.824,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c187$98 inWon+$89.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7068…c63bbacked Over52c134$70 inWon+$64.32850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Over54c100$54 inWon+$4612947.3%61 W · 68 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaadb…1601backed Under48c69$33 inLost-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb1…62b5backed Under48c65$31 inLost-$31.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over53c56.6$30 inWon+$26.651651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over51c38.41$20 inWon+$18.822,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Over51c33.77$17 inWon+$16.565168.6%35 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over52c28.26$15 inWon+$13.6532743.4%142 W · 185 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Over50c25$13 inWon+$12.525058.4%146 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2722…697abacked Over54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.374465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.