NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b304e1569b8beb2a29b9cde308804960252841b25ad030dbd8cc468f957a72

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Nuggetsof 76ers, Nuggets
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers	52c	4,595$2,396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,396.07	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets	39c	3,078$1,195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,883.41	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked 76ers	51c	2,941$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Nuggets	54c	2,764$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.66	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	61c	2,563$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,559.89	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed 76ers	33c	1,850$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.5	195	31.3%61 W · 134 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets	49c	1,779$880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$898.88	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed 76ers	51c	1,400$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714	332	35.5%118 W · 214 L	-27.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets	37c	1,173$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.23	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Nuggets	54c	1,111$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.11	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers	51c	1,054$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.54	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers	58c	694.31$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.05	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Nuggets	33c	669.14$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.32	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	58c	518.67$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.55	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed 76ers	60c	511.63$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.98	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked 76ers	67c	499.94$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.96	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed 76ers	58c	400$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Nuggets	34c	294.12$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.12	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed 76ers	67c	250$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.5	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b3…fa37backed 76ers	69c	204.52$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed 76ers	68c	200$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed 76ers	69c	200$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Nuggets	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Nuggets	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	173	49.1%85 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed 76ers	68c	181$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.08	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nuggets	36c	146.2$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.22	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed 76ers	69c	145.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked 76ers	59c	125.42$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Nuggets	34c	125$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.5	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed 76ers	68c	125$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed 76ers	59c	84.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Nuggets	41c	82.5$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.88	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5333…6f62backed Nuggets	43c	82$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.74	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	54cpaid	+94.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked 76ers	42c	78$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Nuggets	34c	73.53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.53	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed Nuggets	34c	70$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.2	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Nuggets	40c	69$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.33	129	47.3%61 W · 68 L	+12.3wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets	35c	60$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Nuggets	38c	60$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	317	54.6%173 W · 144 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed 76ers	69c	56.82$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.14	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed 76ers	62c	56.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.06	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 76ers	56c	53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd395…3731backed Nuggets	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x207b…df20backed Nuggets	33c	49.24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.99	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed 76ers	68c	47$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.96	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce1…5555backed Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e7…6d5cbacked 76ers	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-19%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets	35c	30.42$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.77	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed 76ers	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked 76ers	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked 76ers	59c	20.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	152	53.3%81 W · 71 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed 76ers	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed 76ers	59c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1c…dc02backed 76ers	69c	15.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event