NBA · resolved market
Spread: 76ers (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7abc387a46f48dfc9b6b4c7d4a29479b6647e984bad069aafd870375a5f622a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof 76ers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers | 53c | 257,972$136,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136,725 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Nuggets | 47c | 250,000$117,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132,500 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers | 53c | 65,000$34,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,449.89 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed 76ers | 53c | 38,110$20,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,198.21 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 47c | 31,893$15,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,830.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 47c | 28,339$13,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,019.73 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Nuggets | 47c | 23,560$11,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,455.81 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked 76ers | 52c | 14,771$7,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,681.06 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 13,849$6,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,340.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 47c | 10,154$4,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Nuggets | 48c | 4,529$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.17 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,128$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,002$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Nuggets | 58c | 1,479$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.26 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 76ers | 42c | 1,272$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.89 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers | 52c | 924.14$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.72 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Nuggets | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Nuggets | 48c | 680.78$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.01 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Nuggets | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…7582backed 76ers | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 332 | 35.5%118 W · 214 L | -27.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed 76ers | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 47c | 299.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed 76ers | 52c | 289.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed 76ers | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Nuggets | 47c | 251.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Nuggets | 48c | 244.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Nuggets | 58c | 222$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Nuggets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 154$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 48c | 137.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…6219backed Nuggets | 50c | 137$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Nuggets | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets | 50c | 101.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked 76ers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Nuggets | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked 76ers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Nuggets | 50c | 69.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…bd21backed 76ers | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed 76ers | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8901…e16bbacked 76ers | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Nuggets | 47c | 46.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed 76ers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…1359backed 76ers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…be5abacked 76ers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed 76ers | 53c | 35.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed 76ers | 42c | 34.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed 76ers | 53c | 32.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Nuggets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked 76ers | 51c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked 76ers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…38b0backed Nuggets | 48c | 28.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Nuggets | 48c | 27.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…27d2backed Nuggets | 75c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Nuggets | 49c | 26.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Nuggets | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Nuggets | 50c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 76ers (-14.5)this page
- Jamal Murray: Points Over 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. 76ersNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: 76ers (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: 76ers (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: 76ers (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: 76ers (-15.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: 76ers (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.