NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598fd94b9488df174e9e13c6a95114f2196334b3e5482220d717fe0825dd7cbb

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	13,993$6,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,249.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	55c	13,943$7,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,330.5	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Over	57c	6,140$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,640.35	310	44.8%139 W · 171 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Over	53c	4,336$2,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,037.92	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	45c	3,994$1,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,797.3	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	44c	1,163$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.5	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	56c	721$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.24	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Under	46c	567$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.82	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	45c	403.26$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.4	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Over	53c	157$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.79	206	51%105 W · 101 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over	55c	155$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.75	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5660…6cb7backed Over	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…a714backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over	57c	87.54$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.64	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe340…1085backed Under	45c	65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb781…0adcbacked Over	57c	61.4$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db5…a251backed Under	45c	60$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd7f…0d6cbacked Over	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Over	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Under	46c	41.3$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	55c	33.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under	45c	33.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b7…667abacked Under	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+135.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over	56c	23.86$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event