WNBA · resolved market
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x445b2b16136abd2d15104543ba61527119dfbddf2c5994fceae8343980c14b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 1,222$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.72 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 1,088$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.53 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 1,000$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.03 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 57c | 554$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 544.55$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 524.15$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.47 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Under | 71c | 403.75$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 43c | 307$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 43c | 298$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 249$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…cfa1backed Under | 58c | 246.86$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 41c | 238.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 55c | 237.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 42c | 122.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 42c | 105.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 47c | 80.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 64c | 76.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 13c | 76.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 36.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 30.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 42c | 28.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 49c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 49c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5this page
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFireDallas Wings won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 177.5Over won
- Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-7.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.