WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa281f6b765b7e48ea6c0c8ee451f9f6cbe2ec93d2c85e5a69f6fa63dd72fb978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Dallas Wings, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 5,128$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Dallas Wings | 47c | 4,061$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Dallas Wings | 54c | 1,258$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.21 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings | 57c | 1,183$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.17 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PortlandFire | 43c | 1,000$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.86 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Dallas Wings | 63c | 973.02$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked PortlandFire | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed Dallas Wings | 61c | 552.77$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dallas Wings | 65c | 532.52$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.16 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked PortlandFire | 57c | 524.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed PortlandFire | 46c | 502.91$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.57 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 487.82$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.8 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…1986backed Dallas Wings | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire | 56c | 429.29$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.64 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 44c | 374$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.04 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Dallas Wings | 12c | 359.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked PortlandFire | 45c | 349.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Dallas Wings | 30c | 329.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 275.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…60f0backed Dallas Wings | 11c | 272.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 269.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Dallas Wings | 38c | 263.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked PortlandFire | 38c | 261$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 48c | 240.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Dallas Wings | 36c | 234$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed PortlandFire | 21c | 233.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Dallas Wings | 40c | 225.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Dallas Wings | 11c | 213.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Dallas Wings | 54c | 208.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed PortlandFire | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked PortlandFire | 46c | 176.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…57c6backed Dallas Wings | 11c | 171.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 162.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked PortlandFire | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PortlandFire | 52c | 135.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Dallas Wings | 54c | 135.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Dallas Wings | 58c | 134.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire | 49c | 119.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked PortlandFire | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked PortlandFire | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed PortlandFire | 51c | 96.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Dallas Wings | 61c | 78.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed PortlandFire | 16c | 76.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 68.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…bdbabacked Dallas Wings | 68c | 62.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed PortlandFire | 72c | 62.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed PortlandFire | 46c | 61.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Dallas Wings | 60c | 55.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Dallas Wings | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Dallas Wings | 58c | 53.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PortlandFire | 37c | 50.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Dallas Wings | 55c | 50.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PortlandFire | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Dallas Wings | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Dallas Wings | 48c | 46.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed PortlandFire | 53c | 46.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed PortlandFire | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PortlandFire | 47c | 39.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked PortlandFire | 35c | 39.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Dallas Wings | 59c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed PortlandFire | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Dallas Wings | 57c | 35.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed PortlandFire | 43c | 35.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed PortlandFire | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed PortlandFire | 67c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…7d01backed Dallas Wings | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed PortlandFire | 42c | 31.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked PortlandFire | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed PortlandFire | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed PortlandFire | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…3374backed Dallas Wings | 47c | 25.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed PortlandFire | 50c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c8…ed6cbacked Dallas Wings | 59c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5)this page
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFireDallas Wings won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 177.5Over won
- Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Dallas Wings (-7.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.