Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4483ebbd1a28261de83738887934c67822349b3c935d49393fadc6b4e147ccef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amaru Gamingof Amaru Gaming, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Estar Backs | 31c | 15,419$4,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,742.87 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e171backed Estar Backs | 16c | 5,612$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Amaru Gaming | 56c | 4,260$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.6 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Amaru Gaming | 58c | 4,052$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.74 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Estar Backs | 47c | 3,253$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.09 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Amaru Gaming | 59c | 2,239$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.07 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Amaru Gaming | 50c | 1,844$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.99 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Estar Backs | 68c | 1,193$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.58 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Estar Backs | 18c | 1,144$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Amaru Gaming | 53c | 1,096$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.52 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…dfaabacked Amaru Gaming | 67c | 1,035$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Amaru Gaming | 74c | 1,019$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Amaru Gaming | 54c | 1,008$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.71 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Estar Backs | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Estar Backs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Estar Backs | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Estar Backs | 50c | 892.27$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.83 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Estar Backs | 33c | 875$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Estar Backs | 41c | 853.14$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.28 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…20e9backed Amaru Gaming | 66c | 807.01$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.01 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Estar Backs | 37c | 729.69$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Estar Backs | 33c | 692.1$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Estar Backs | 43c | 689.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Estar Backs | 17c | 686.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…6185backed Amaru Gaming | 62c | 646.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Amaru Gaming | 50c | 636.64$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Estar Backs | 60c | 620$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Estar Backs | 50c | 603.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Estar Backs | 33c | 556$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.01 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Estar Backs | 30c | 554.68$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Amaru Gaming | 70c | 554.57$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.21 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Estar Backs | 41c | 541.46$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Estar Backs | 44c | 532.19$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Estar Backs | 47c | 514$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.58 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Estar Backs | 15c | 513.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Estar Backs | 34c | 443.38$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…9c8abacked Amaru Gaming | 55c | 406.42$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.42 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Amaru Gaming | 56c | 358.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…f8a1backed Amaru Gaming | 48c | 355$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Amaru Gaming | 56c | 352.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…6354backed Estar Backs | 44c | 350$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Amaru Gaming | 59c | 342.58$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…fab1backed Estar Backs | 41c | 324.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Estar Backs | 42c | 310.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Estar Backs | 43c | 301.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…40e5backed Estar Backs | 35c | 268.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 334 | 53%177 W · 157 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…e293backed Amaru Gaming | 80c | 267.09$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Estar Backs | 41c | 258.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Estar Backs | 50c | 240.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5d…cfb4backed Amaru Gaming | 68c | 237.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Estar Backs | 32c | 226.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5809…9868backed Amaru Gaming | 57c | 220.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Estar Backs | 40c | 203.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Estar Backs | 43c | 201.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Amaru Gaming | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Estar Backs | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Estar Backs | 45c | 192.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Estar Backs | 20c | 186.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Amaru Gaming | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Estar Backs | 49c | 173.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…7a58backed Estar Backs | 17c | 159.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Estar Backs | 32c | 152.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Amaru Gaming | 80c | 139.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Estar Backs | 48c | 131.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed Estar Backs | 43c | 130.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Estar Backs | 44c | 116.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Estar Backs | 19c | 111.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Amaru Gaming | 53c | 110.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked Estar Backs | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked Estar Backs | 39c | 109.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Amaru Gaming | 57c | 99.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Estar Backs | 40c | 98.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…c8c6backed Amaru Gaming | 72c | 95.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Estar Backs | 18c | 89.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Amaru Gaming | 32c | 85.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Amaru Gaming | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Estar Backs | 16c | 76.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Estar Backs | 29c | 73.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…33d0backed Amaru Gaming | 68c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Amaru Gaming | 68c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5a…1ac8backed Estar Backs | 17c | 71.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Amaru Gaming | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Estar Backs | 43c | 63.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Amaru Gaming | 76c | 63.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Estar Backs | 50c | 58.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Amaru Gaming | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Estar Backs | 40c | 51.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Estar Backs | 36c | 47.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Estar Backs | 44c | 45.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Estar Backs | 43c | 43.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Amaru Gaming | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…acbbbacked Estar Backs | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Estar Backs | 44c | 40.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Amaru Gaming | 60c | 40.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Estar Backs | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Estar Backs | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…e3febacked Amaru Gaming | 74c | 39.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Estar Backs | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…1454backed Estar Backs | 43c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAmaru Gaming won
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerEstar Backs won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.