CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448b1fd0e9fe418e1e67a200ce08b3b8ca0e7c371659068ae5e0c22aa64d1189

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FURIAof FURIA, Heroic
Resolved: May 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $68,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,069 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a92…6941backed FURIA	42c	18,084$7,595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,488.44	115	47%54 W · 61 L	+9.9wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7e1…ec43backed Heroic	58c	13,670$7,928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,927.77	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Heroic	56c	9,336$5,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,256.7	330	43.3%143 W · 187 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked FURIA	44c	7,000$3,065 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,935.49	276	58%160 W · 116 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Heroic	58c	3,000$1,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,740	116	38.8%45 W · 71 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44dd…f476backed FURIA	43c	2,906$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,656.67	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed FURIA	41c	2,802$1,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,653.31	182	54.9%100 W · 82 L	+7.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Heroic	58c	2,506$1,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.37	162	45.1%73 W · 89 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed FURIA	41c	2,200$902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.98	185	47%87 W · 98 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Heroic	59c	2,058$1,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214.4	602	48.7%293 W · 309 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic	59c	1,500$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885	1,081	50.9%550 W · 531 L	+37.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Heroic	57c	1,249$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.68	716	45.9%329 W · 387 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Heroic	60c	1,200$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.6	267	43.1%115 W · 152 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FURIA	42c	1,000$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580	334	52.1%174 W · 160 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic	58c	888$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.04	1,144	49.4%565 W · 579 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Heroic	58c	776.99$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.65	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed FURIA	41c	718.84$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.84	474	47.5%225 W · 249 L	-12.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed FURIA	54c	546.92$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.58	547	32.2%176 W · 371 L	-28.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed Heroic	59c	508.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	364	50.3%183 W · 181 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FURIA	40c	460.24$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.37	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Heroic	59c	425$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.75	263	41.1%108 W · 155 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked FURIA	43c	379.47$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.3	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed FURIA	43c	372.56$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.36	126	51.6%65 W · 61 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heroic	59c	364.75$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.72	160	47.5%76 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed FURIA	42c	278.47$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.51	100	61%61 W · 39 L	+10.9wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef86…7e1fbacked Heroic	59c	252.54$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed FURIA	44c	222.84$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.79	419	38.9%163 W · 256 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Heroic	62c	203.64$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	227	57.3%130 W · 97 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68d…1f62backed FURIA	42c	200$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	254	46.1%117 W · 137 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked FURIA	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	381	57.7%220 W · 161 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FURIA	40c	191.93$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.16	724	53.7%389 W · 335 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed FURIA	39c	190.16$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	676	51.8%350 W · 326 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked FURIA	44c	189.2$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.95	354	66.1%234 W · 120 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Heroic	56c	184.2$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.15	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2b4…2ce6backed FURIA	43c	158.07$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.07	297	57.6%171 W · 126 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed Heroic	57c	155$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.35	509	47%239 W · 270 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c5…2862backed Heroic	61c	147.54$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	90	46.7%42 W · 48 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Heroic	48c	137.8$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.14	1,779	59.1%1,052 W · 727 L	+104.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed FURIA	40c	125$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	333	54.4%181 W · 152 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed FURIA	42c	119.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.04	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FURIA	42c	118.76$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.88	760	58%441 W · 319 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa717…3bbebacked FURIA	60c	117.19$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.19	384	52.1%200 W · 184 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FURIA	70c	98$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	656	50.3%330 W · 326 L	-15.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heroic	37c	85.18$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	2,102	16.8%353 W · 1,749 L	-286.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3fc3…ee0bbacked FURIA	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	139	58.3%81 W · 58 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Heroic	27c	80.71$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	1,650	32.7%540 W · 1,110 L	-49.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f63…89f3backed Heroic	57c	77.33$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.08	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fc…0ef5backed FURIA	43c	75.26$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	83	59%49 W · 34 L	+6.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6919…da67backed FURIA	40c	75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	387	54.8%212 W · 175 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed FURIA	42c	71.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.24	187	48.1%90 W · 97 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b3…13edbacked FURIA	42c	70.21$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.72	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52cd…85fbbacked FURIA	43c	70.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.97	365	41.9%153 W · 212 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heroic	39c	68.38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.82	3,257	50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L	+98.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Heroic	58c	66.26$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	262	45.8%120 W · 142 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9bb…cad6backed FURIA	43c	65.84$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.53	137	54%74 W · 63 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed FURIA	41c	60.2$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.52	2,009	53.9%1,082 W · 927 L	+7.6wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Heroic	59c	60$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	120	44.2%53 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Heroic	58c	60$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	991	48.3%479 W · 512 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b3c…a34abacked FURIA	35c	57.87$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.87	264	43.2%114 W · 150 L	-10.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f8…e03abacked FURIA	59c	55.93$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.93	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FURIA	64c	55.17$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.85	3,096	48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L	+135.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Heroic	48c	52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Heroic	58c	42.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	445	52.4%233 W · 212 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf0…e384backed Heroic	61c	40.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	331	53.5%177 W · 154 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Heroic	58c	40.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee8…432ebacked FURIA	43c	40.7$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d2…386fbacked FURIA	42c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-6.1wins	-0.19per pick	41cpaid	-48%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0801…8550backed FURIA	42c	37.07$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed FURIA	41c	35.48$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.94	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de0…ea80backed Heroic	61c	34.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	196	55.1%108 W · 88 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked FURIA	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4910…2ae7backed Heroic	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea86…6fb4backed Heroic	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	24.3%17 W · 53 L	-17.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-56%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x5a79…6acebacked Heroic	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9bf…8ec8backed FURIA	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	323	57.6%186 W · 137 L	+13.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed Heroic	58c	32.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	167	66.5%111 W · 56 L	+8.5wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed FURIA	42c	30.53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	216	50.9%110 W · 106 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Heroic	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	233	54.5%127 W · 106 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91df…fd49backed Heroic	59c	25.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	159	66%105 W · 54 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…1d65backed Heroic	59c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Heroic	49c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffbf…1184backed FURIA	51c	23.53$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae5…f868backed Heroic	67c	22.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group StageFURIA won
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerFURIA won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event