TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GamerLegionof GamerLegion, Yellow Submarine
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03f4…7e44backed GamerLegion71c8,150$5,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.7556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed GamerLegion60c6,274$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.95761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Yellow Submarine40c3,466$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.231741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b7…0c87backed GamerLegion78c1,896$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Yellow Submarine40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked GamerLegion60c1,708$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.4142145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Yellow Submarine24c1,586$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.0525935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Yellow Submarine49c1,548$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.0661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f5…a937backed Yellow Submarine4c1,440$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Yellow Submarine25c1,236$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked GamerLegion50c1,218$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.822,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yellow Submarine26c1,114$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3167043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed GamerLegion60c1,069$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.638246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Yellow Submarine48c1,010$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7934860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Yellow Submarine45c985.45$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2511836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Yellow Submarine40c950$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Yellow Submarine44c877.94$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.5754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed GamerLegion55c865.58$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.631,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked Yellow Submarine33c860.67$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.021258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Yellow Submarine45c831.69$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.6818745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed GamerLegion58c830.11$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3471342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Yellow Submarine37c749.53$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8720738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine41c681.26$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7197142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Yellow Submarine39c672.93$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.17560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked GamerLegion62c612.42$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9630844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d36…51debacked Yellow Submarine25c581.97$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.495330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4162…0d18backed GamerLegion61c580.15$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.372580%20 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+15.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yellow Submarine42c573.2$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.057830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked GamerLegion65c552.83$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4936851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Yellow Submarine40c517.47$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9220827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd94d…fc49backed Yellow Submarine37c500.93$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed GamerLegion52c457.44$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5734443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yellow Submarine28c448.06$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0511150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc17d…2134backed GamerLegion64c416.14$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.361580%12 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Yellow Submarine26c412.08$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1073847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Yellow Submarine47c387.16$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.033148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked GamerLegion56c374.55$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5720043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Yellow Submarine54c344.77$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.732759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d66…ffc9backed Yellow Submarine20c338.58$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.722347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed GamerLegion52c312.84$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.168042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yellow Submarine23c311.38$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6211644.8%52 W · 64 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…fb90backed GamerLegion54c297.59$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.332450%12 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine34c276.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed GamerLegion71c271.8$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed GamerLegion65c259.44$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8815337.3%57 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked GamerLegion67c239.96$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.437954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yellow Submarine8c238.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8819242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked GamerLegion71c236.39$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1591356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed GamerLegion64c234.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed GamerLegion67c233.58$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.846949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Yellow Submarine42c227.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5428062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Yellow Submarine26c218.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3529350.2%147 W · 146 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Yellow Submarine41c212.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5770052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked GamerLegion55c206.44$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.158544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Yellow Submarine37c201.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3811652.6%61 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Yellow Submarine47c199.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed GamerLegion55c195.72$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0710136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yellow Submarine37c174.69$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.146144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Yellow Submarine47c168.94$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9621650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc188…3857backed GamerLegion57c168.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed GamerLegion52c168.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.684746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yellow Submarine37c161.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.819145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed Yellow Submarine50c154.88$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine40c134.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.281,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Yellow Submarine38c133.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked GamerLegion75c129.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2719951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…b74fbacked Yellow Submarine43c128.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.458848.9%43 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Yellow Submarine45c126.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.957448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Yellow Submarine38c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…b6f3backed Yellow Submarine25c114.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Yellow Submarine57c112.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1634045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Yellow Submarine45c108.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3446150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8f…f631backed GamerLegion50c106.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.611070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed Yellow Submarine17c102.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.975131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Yellow Submarine44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4422845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x54b4…748abacked Yellow Submarine35c99.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4913026.2%34 W · 96 L-15.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed GamerLegion65c97.95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.071,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed GamerLegion57c97.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7619440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed GamerLegion62c97.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3487645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked GamerLegion76c86.57$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5215461.7%95 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yellow Submarine40c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3413636%49 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed GamerLegion78c84.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.698950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbda…8bd5backed GamerLegion56c83.65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6113259.8%79 W · 53 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed GamerLegion62c81.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9510571.4%75 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yellow Submarine21c79.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82825%7 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Yellow Submarine42c79.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5514744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine32c74.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.991,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yellow Submarine42c73.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8995841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked GamerLegion58c73.38$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8210560%63 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked GamerLegion52c70.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8714962.4%93 W · 56 L+21.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked GamerLegion63c68.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7620954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc578…5c1ebacked GamerLegion65c68.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.831540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbace…6a61backed GamerLegion58c67.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Yellow Submarine24c64.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.455550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Yellow Submarine42c64.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9831251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc55d…9fd8backed GamerLegion62c63.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.014955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yellow Submarine44c62.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.923622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d48…f5a2backed Yellow Submarine47c62.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked Yellow Submarine42c62.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0612655.6%70 W · 56 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed GamerLegion46c61.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.45621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.