NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x454e81cd0b8bbeb51233460b84fc4a27a3fdb6ca289499af26852eaa780fcbc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,003$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Under | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.06 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Over | 69c | 820.78$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.91 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 60c | 430.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 41c | 409.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.38 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 338$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 317.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Under | 49c | 282.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 37c | 271.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 240.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 60c | 233.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.29 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 74c | 97.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 86.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…7d56backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 34c | 64.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 57.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 24c | 48.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…13b7backed Under | 50c | 30.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…c340backed Over | 50c | 29.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.