NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad81c68624b563d18b0c4ee989fc9c1f2ac889e7bada508ce5d13882f70aa778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Thunder | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Thunder | 54c | 5,094$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.98 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 49c | 3,664$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…99f0backed Spurs | 75c | 2,003$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Thunder | 4c | 1,800$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Thunder | 23c | 1,500$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs | 49c | 700.88$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.31 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…8507backed Spurs | 51c | 604.36$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Thunder | 21c | 476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Spurs | 50c | 454.44$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.22 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Thunder | 50c | 382.84$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.42 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Thunder | 49c | 248.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Spurs | 37c | 217.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 42c | 187.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Spurs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Spurs | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Thunder | 51c | 69.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Spurs | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Spurs | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ef…f7c4backed Thunder | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Spurs | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Thunder | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Thunder | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Spurs | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Spurs | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Thunder | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Spurs | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Thunder | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Thunder | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Thunder | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Spurs | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Thunder | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Thunder | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.