TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,576
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,576 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a32…0086backed Under44c1,500$660 inWon+$8401,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over56c1,028$576 inLost-$575.7940350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over10c1,000$100 inLost-$10067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Over4c500$20 inLost-$209828.6%28 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over56c377$211 inLost-$211.1250047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Over10c200$20 inLost-$202015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Under41c141$58 inWon+$83.194949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Under41c67$27 inWon+$39.533961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1bd…0da6backed Over59c47$28 inLost-$27.734344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over56c44.64$25 inLost-$2560346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b7…c747backed Over59c34$20 inLost-$20.062356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over56c27.3$15 inLost-$15.2910234.3%35 W · 67 L-12.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5266…ddaebacked Over59c25$15 inLost-$14.752343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d78…4756backed Over59c19$11 inLost-$11.212860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x891e…ea69backed Over59c19$11 inLost-$11.212857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Over56c17.86$10 inLost-$102330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-39.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.