NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa8cce04f1986c4e16658d8af6fded69f888fccf86e66729bedf699510c9878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.8 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 2,612$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.84 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 53c | 1,421$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.19 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 50c | 1,166$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 49c | 610.86$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.86 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 49c | 365.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Over | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 54c | 249.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 50c | 221.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 44c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 49c | 100.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 42c | 79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 51c | 74.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Over | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Over | 53c | 27.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 119.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.