Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x457a1c0522ce1ae014748f2cf6ff94e8dbff0b45f49bdf558e6291a00c64fff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Over | 28c | 11,254$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 7,547$6,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.61 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 13c | 3,124$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.75 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 4c | 2,781$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 2,354$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.65 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 1,332$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.32 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 16c | 1,187$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 970.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…d24dbacked Over | 15c | 691.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 16c | 488.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 349.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 19c | 333.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 322.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 9c | 294.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 283.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 9c | 269$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 14c | 256.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…fac0backed Under | 70c | 181.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 9c | 157.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 73c | 156.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 72c | 144.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Under | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 27c | 134.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Over | 25c | 118.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 118.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 78c | 117.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…1be5backed Over | 12c | 115.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Under | 78c | 113.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Over | 14c | 90.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 25c | 88.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 77c | 78.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…f556backed Over | 14c | 71.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 78c | 63.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 78c | 53.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 70c | 52.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 80c | 47.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 79c | 41.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 34.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 80c | 34.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…4ea2backed Under | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…85edbacked Under | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 77c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…1359backed Under | 75c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.