NBA · resolved market
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x457f18f2f804c0bd6584579e83780237f05e62307cec61c4d5c71896517b5d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof 76ers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 53c | 6,796$3,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,574.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…599fbacked Warriors | 49c | 5,163$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed 76ers | 53c | 4,386$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers | 55c | 2,271$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…514cbacked Warriors | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Warriors | 42c | 1,305$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.9 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 44c | 1,238$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 47c | 718$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked 76ers | 55c | 625.2$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed 76ers | 54c | 430.52$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.81 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked 76ers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 44c | 165$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed 76ers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed 76ers | 52c | 95.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…e56bbacked Warriors | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Warriors | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 55c | 29.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…1c3cbacked 76ers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…a46bbacked 76ers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…a988backed 76ers | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: 76ers (-4.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. 76ers76ers won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.