NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151d95f8adbde98287976fe5caf049a471c98d9369180b31113a9b00d8838790

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $94,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,626 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Over	51c	36,530$18,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,459.6	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	33,787$15,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,557.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Over	57c	28,122$16,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,152.17	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Under	49c	18,894$9,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,548.29	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	49c	10,154$4,975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,178.57	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	42c	9,433$3,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,471.27	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	56c	5,317$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Under	46c	4,037$1,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,180.06	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	50c	4,000$1,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,010	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,620	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over	51c	2,153$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	44c	2,093$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,163.08	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over	51c	1,970$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.7	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Over	54c	1,852$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1010…0cc9backed Over	55c	1,462$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.85	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	51c	1,432$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.34	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	42c	1,372$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$790.43	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	43c	1,168$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.21	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under	43c	627.63$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.75	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	56c	605$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.88	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under	49c	550$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.5	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Under	44c	499.99$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under	42c	464$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.12	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	44c	444$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.64	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over	56c	410.71$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over	54c	387.46$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.23	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Over	56c	371.43$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	49c	350$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.4	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	47c	305.45$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.15	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Over	55c	280$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.8	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Under	47c	250$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.5	179	41.9%75 W · 104 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Under	47c	250$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.5	107	35.5%38 W · 69 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	44c	200$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Under	47c	190$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.7	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49a0…29acbacked Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	44c	99.99$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ec…ed1dbacked Over	54c	95.3$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.46	164	61.6%101 W · 63 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdb…6404backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	531	41.8%222 W · 309 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Under	65c	70.45$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.62	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Over	56c	70$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b8…68a5backed Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under	49c	56$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19c9…2e09backed Over	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…f9a1backed Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	350	52%182 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c2…c9ddbacked Over	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	70cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be5…8d0cbacked Over	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	35c	47.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…bbb5backed Under	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	148	41.9%62 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5210backed Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	52c	42.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	56c	41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.96	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a42…6aa2backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d21cbacked Over	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	45c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	46c	24.57$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Over	53c	24.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under	44c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.44	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea1c…73e6backed Over	56c	21.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfac…75debacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	66c	18.15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.17	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4e…7e00backed Over	57c	17.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5this page
1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)76ers won
1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)76ers won
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Warriors won
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)Warriors won
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)Warriors won
Warriors vs. 76ers76ers won
Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5Under won
Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Warriors vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event