TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$392,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x022e…2a77backed Yes2c44,474$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.729549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes3c21,170$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.888134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes3c20,696$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.8318033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5510…2083backed Yes4c16,527$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes1c15,092$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.36185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes3c13,609$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.14542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes3c11,801$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9721935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba98…9adcbacked Yes4c11,615$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes2c10,838$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.912630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…64c1backed Yes3c10,478$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.46850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0556…74f3backed Yes3c9,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1664…2babbacked Yes2c9,390$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+102.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes3c8,824$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.458020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c8,803$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.553989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c8,449$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes1c8,272$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.972045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes3c7,629$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.141936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5648…68e3backed Yes3c7,601$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes2c7,168$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.411618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes3c6,006$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.04626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes2c6,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes2c5,764$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92be…368cbacked Yes2c5,563$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-87%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9328…0e02backed Yes4c5,352$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes3c4,982$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9413145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes2c4,887$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1815124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes2c4,670$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.685935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes2c4,246$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes3c3,665$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.294731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c3,502$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6311612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes3c3,328$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10116544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd071…c256backed Yes4c2,838$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c2,600$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes2c2,504$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.085433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes1c2,386$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.676526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes3c2,047$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.591127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes3c2,000$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.93923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes2c2,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.543164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-80.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes4c1,930$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6910127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes3c1,845$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.024030%12 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes3c1,700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.83938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+102.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes3c1,535$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.03277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked Yes2c1,487$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.292650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x100d…496abacked Yes1c1,466$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Yes3c1,430$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes3c1,352$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.53219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd687…4faabacked Yes3c1,330$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,245$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes3c1,243$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes4c1,236$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.13128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes3c1,200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.63030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb2…961abacked Yes5c1,191$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1b…e5aabacked Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes1c1,071$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.322412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c999.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes4c999.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.141921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes5c959.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0716…f036backed Yes3c937.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes3c935.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.742740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…d5fcbacked Yes3c764.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x555f…fdc3backed Yes4c741.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes2c721.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa69a…47aabacked Yes3c686.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcab…9c4cbacked Yes3c681.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685b…69efbacked Yes4c650.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…c42abacked Yes3c649.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes2c649.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a4…05f5backed Yes4c615.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes4c600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.777825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes3c599.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c519.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3932029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes3c499.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes3c492.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b57…27fcbacked Yes6c465.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c465$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd3…2925backed Yes3c452.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77be…951abacked Yes4c440$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes9c424.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.463417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665d…a8ebbacked Yes3c415$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes3c411$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.452937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes3c401.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4518322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddd…a40bbacked Yes3c355.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…3318backed Yes3c333.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes5c318.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed Yes3c316.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes4c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes4c278.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.