Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465c18eb40efb8afae36bc212b24da798c3cfa433999722bc29fee5ed02d6696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 8,565$5,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.15 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed No | 53c | 6,024$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 23c | 3,587$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 58c | 3,473$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.64 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 36c | 3,193$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.93 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 75c | 2,813$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.38 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 52c | 2,345$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.77 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 23c | 2,183$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.69 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 63c | 1,071$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.04 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…82fdbacked Yes | 49c | 868.51$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 858.15$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.82 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1c13backed No | 53c | 849.06$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 719.14$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.8 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…5130backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed No | 53c | 499.98$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Yes | 75c | 444.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 22c | 347.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…0350backed Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 49c | 299$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 28c | 252.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Yes | 78c | 244.67$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked No | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 22c | 199.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 51c | 198.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…9430backed Yes | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…6ddabacked No | 23c | 170.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed No | 50c | 165.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 53c | 153$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 78c | 145.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 77c | 144.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 51c | 105.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…5aaebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 64c | 96.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 60c | 89.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…27f3backed Yes | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 76c | 67.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 69c | 56.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 70c | 55.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Yes | 66c | 50.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 50.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Yes | 67c | 48.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 23c | 47.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9124…7a4dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Yes | 78c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 69c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…fd00backed Yes | 49c | 20.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yes | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Yes | 77c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 78c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 40 | 85%34 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Yes | 77c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.